Cyprus- Bailing out Economic Bubble

Paul Krugman summarizes the origins of Cyprus' problems in (here): the banking system, a housing bubble and an overvaluation. He says that it was as “if Cyprus has managed to combine in one place everything that has gone wrong elsewhere”. One could add policymaking to it.

I’m from a country that had (and has) “creative” policymakers. We’ve seen a lot here. Especially during hyperinflation-years. But, what I see emerging from a small island can put all the wrong Brazilian attempts behind. It just scares me.

The way out found by Cypriot policymakers was to tax deposits to help pay the bills. I’m not kidding. They’ve decided to impose a suddenly loss of wealth in country lacking competitiveness (the overvaluation issue), whose problems emerged from the banking system, though it still depends on financial services, while housing prices are correcting the distortions brought by a housing bubble. But there’s more. It is a country that does NOT have monetary policy to fight recession and whose government finances are problematic.

If it wasn’t enough, it brings the fear of a banking run. A banking holiday was instituted to contain the damage. Well, good policies would be a better way for containing the damage. Furthermore, it raises problems outside of the island. Cyprus participates in a monetary arrangement called Euro zone.

The Cypriot policy brings uncertainty to what could happen in other problematic countries. The possibility of a banking run in Cyprus, or the mere thought that something similar could be done in another country, could trigger the end of the time brought by Mario Draghi’s whatever it takes.  

The problems in the Euro Zone were far from being resolved, but at least markets were calm enough to provide European policymakers time to waste. I wonder what’s coming.

Read more »

Ali Gul Pir - Wadera ka beta song misled Saeens

 Recently social web blockbuster song "Wadere ka beta" by Ali Gul Pir was on every lips across Pakistan. Everyone were considering it as a revolutionary song against feudalism in Pakistan.But it was noticed that young feudalist picked this song as honor for them.Son of Wadera listens song proudly in his hammer.Example of Shahzeb murder case by Wadera Shahrukh Jatoi can viewed as reflection of this song where Shahrukh believing himself as "Shahrukh Khan" killed Shahzeb to show world that he is the Boss & he can do anything in Pakistan, no one can even mess with him.Interestingly the name of song's character is "AKBAR JATOI" and before killing Shazeb in mouth firing between Shahrukh & Shahzeb, Shahrukh was found proclaiming that he is "Shahrukh Jatoi" (so called AKBAR JATOI of song) and proudly declaring himself Wadera of the region and threatening Shahrukh of bad results clashing with feudals.Actually Shahrukh (Wadera) servant misbehaved Shahzeb's sister before all these back-clash.When Shahzeb went for complaining servants act to Shahrukh, he refused Shahzeb considering himself a President of white house and his servant as a Raymond Davis..like songs words "SAEEN TO SAEEN- SAEEN KA KUTTA BHI SAEEN".But he 've totally forgot that he is living in 21st century, especially in Metropolitan city like KARACHI where he can do everything which a wadera can do in his interior Sindh self control State.He can treat his inhabitants like animals but in cities like Karachi where people consider these waderas like Donkey not else, he can not do anything.

Shahrukh who escaped Dubai earlier after the murder is now in Jail. He came back due to PPP influence on his father coz his father has remained MPA in Sindh assembly as PPP candidate.So PPP was in criticism after this case & they convinced Shahrukh's father to bring back him Pakistan in  promise to release him safely when people 'll forgot the case.But he should remember that there is no Guarantee of 2 things: 1. Chinese product & 2. PPP government's promise.

I think Shahrukh Jatoi has made biggest blunder after coming back Pakistan & giving himself in custody.Although he has seen as living in a wonder world in jail, he is giving all luxuries of life in Jail but election is near & if PPP loses election Shahrukh could has to lose his life as Halter order by court.

Read more »

Lessons from My Bosses

by

Sallie Krawcheck

I’ve worked directly for 7 financial services CEOs (don’t ask…..it’s a really long story) and covered many more during my days as a research analyst. Each of them worked very, very hard; each of them was incredibly smart; and each of them was human. They each taught me a lot as I saw them work under great stress….both “what to do’s” and (unintentionally) “what to don’ts.”
The best really understood the concept of NPV (net present value). By that, I mean they were willing to forgo earnings today, to invest smartly for more earnings tomorrow. For example, at Sanford Bernstein, we pulled our research analysts out of the underwriting business, with the view that an unconflicted business model, focused on just one set of clients, would be a winning one. (It was, eventually, but it sometimes hurt along the way.) In contrast, others tried to maximize every quarter’s earnings, cutting investments halfway through the year (or quarter) like clockwork in order to reach consensus analyst estimates. Even worse, a number consistently under-invested in technology, mostly because it was hard to quantify the return. The end results ranged from poor customer and employee experiences, to devastating mistakes in managing risk.
The best set the company’s course, communicated it broadly and were ok if some shareholders chose to sell the stock. In contrast, there was one who set the company’s annual budget based on meeting sell-side earnings estimates. Here the cart was firmly before the horse.
The best: one of my bosses was insatiably (almost obnoxiously) curious; he would stop people in the hall to ask about some detail of their business, or some tidbit he had heard in his travels. He peppered nearly everyone he met with questions, including unsuspecting taxi drivers. His business reviews were exhausting, detailed affairs, akin to mental marathons, in which explanations were not taken at face value. The result was that everyone operated at a higher standard.
On the other hand, I once sat through an entire business review in which the CEO didn’t ask his managers a single substantive question. Instead, he opined on his view of the business to (or at) the assembled businesspeople.
The best: at one firm, the culture was to hire unconventionally, bringing in people with a broad range of backgrounds. The talent we uncovered, where others weren’t looking, could be amazing. In contrast, a couple of CEOs surrounded themselves with a long-tenured “inner circle” and filtered information through them. One of the many reasons for the financial melt-down was the unexamined groupthink that pervaded Wall Street, enabled by senior managers “breathing the same air.”
The best didn’t just say he cared about employees in the Corporate Value statement. He actually did. And he demonstrated it, in one case using his Board contacts to find a top specialist physician for the dying girlfriend of one of our employees (an employee he had never met, by the way). This rippled through the company like wildfire and was a source of pride. At another company, while the Corporate Value statement said about the same things, one long-time senior executive was fired while he was on vacation with his family (!)…..and was given the responsibility of announcing it to his management team in a conference call scheduled for 30 minutes later (!!) Oh, and it was a reorganization; the guy was not fired for cause. This too rippled through the company like wildfire, but in a very different way.
The best CEOs gave thoughtful, detailed performance feedback to his directs on a regular basis. In contrast, I worked in one business that coupled forced stack rankings of employees with anonymous 360 degree performance reviews. What those reviews lacked in pettiness, they made up for in nastiness, as employees tried to improve their own relative standing by anonymously criticizing their peers. Lovely.
The best CEO was highly visible during the financial crisis; even if he was saying the same thing again and again, you had no doubt that he was captaining the ship. In contrast, one leader hunkered down and nearly stopped returning phone calls as he worked through the issues. The work and mental effort were admirable, but the lack of visibility fed enormous anxiety at the company.

Read more »

1 in 2 new graduates are jobless or underemployed in Pakistan

KARACHI (AP) — The college class of 2012 is in for a rude welcome to the world of work.

A weak labor market already has left half of young college graduates either jobless or underemployed in positions that don't fully use their skills and knowledge.

Young adults with bachelor's degrees are increasingly scraping by in lower-wage jobs — waiter or waitress, bartender, retail clerk or receptionist, for example — and that's confounding their hopes a degree would pay off despite higher tuition and mounting student loans.

An analysis of government data conducted for The Associated Press lays bare the highly uneven prospects for holders of bachelor's degrees.

Opportunities for college graduates vary widely.

While there's strong demand in science, education and health fields, arts and humanities flounder. Median wages for those with bachelor's degrees are down from 2000, hit by technological changes that are eliminating midlevel jobs such as bank tellers. Most future job openings are projected to be in lower-skilled positions such as home health aides, who can provide personalized attention as the U.S. population ages.

Taking underemployment into consideration, the job prospects for bachelor's degree holders fell last year to the lowest level in more than a decade.

"I don't even know what I'm looking for," says Michael Bledsoe, who described months of fruitless job searches as he served customers at a Seattle coffeehouse. The 23-year-old graduated in 2010 with a creative writing degree.

Initially hopeful that his college education would create opportunities, Bledsoe languished for three months before finally taking a job as a barista, a position he has held for the last two years. In the beginning he sent three or four resumes day. But, Bledsoe said, employers questioned his lack of experience or the practical worth of his major. Now he sends a resume once every two weeks or so.

Bledsoe, currently making just above minimum wage, says he got financial help from his parents to help pay off student loans. He is now mulling whether to go to graduate school, seeing few other options to advance his career. "There is not much out there, it seems," he said.

His situation highlights a widening but little-discussed labor problem. Perhaps more than ever, the choices that young adults make earlier in life — level of schooling, academic field and training, where to attend college, how to pay for it — are having long-lasting financial impact.

"You can make more money on average if you go to college, but it's not true for everybody," says Harvard economist Richard Freeman, noting the growing risk of a debt bubble with total U.S. student loan debt surpassing $1 trillion. "If you're not sure what you're going to be doing, it probably bodes well to take some job, if you can get one, and get a sense first of what you want from college."

Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University who analyzed the numbers, said many people with a bachelor's degree face a double whammy of rising tuition and poor job outcomes. "Simply put, we're failing kids coming out of college," he said, emphasizing that when it comes to jobs, a college major can make all the difference. "We're going to need a lot better job growth and connections to the labor market, otherwise college debt will grow."

By region, the Mountain West was most likely to have young college graduates jobless or underemployed — roughly 3 in 5. It was followed by the more rural southeastern U.S., including Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi and Tennessee. The Pacific region, including Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, also was high on the list.

On the other end of the scale, the southern U.S., anchored by Texas, was most likely to have young college graduates in higher-skill jobs.

The figures are based on an analysis of 2011 Current Population Survey data by Northeastern University researchers and supplemented with material from Paul Harrington, an economist at Drexel University, and the Economic Policy Institute, a Washington think tank. They rely on Labor Department assessments of the level of education required to do the job in 900-plus U.S. occupations, which were used to calculate the shares of young adults with bachelor's degrees who were "underemployed."

About 1.5 million, or 53.6 percent, of bachelor's degree-holders under the age of 25 last year were jobless or underemployed, the highest share in at least 11 years. In 2000, the share was at a low of 41 percent, before the dot-com bust erased job gains for college graduates in the telecommunications and IT fields.

Out of the 1.5 million who languished in the job market, about half were underemployed, an increase from the previous year.

Broken down by occupation, young college graduates were heavily represented in jobs that require a high school diploma or less.

In the last year, they were more likely to be employed as waiters, waitresses, bartenders and food-service helpers than as engineers, physicists, chemists and mathematicians combined (100,000 versus 90,000). There were more working in office-related jobs such as receptionist or payroll clerk than in all computer professional jobs (163,000 versus 100,000). More also were employed as cashiers, retail clerks and customer representatives than engineers (125,000 versus 80,000).

According to government projections released last month, only three of the 30 occupations with the largest projected number of job openings by 2020 will require a bachelor's degree or higher to fill the position — teachers, college professors and accountants. Most job openings are in professions such as retail sales, fast food and truck driving, jobs which aren't easily replaced by computers.

College graduates who majored in zoology, anthropology, philosophy, art history and humanities were among the least likely to find jobs appropriate to their education level; those with nursing, teaching, accounting or computer science degrees were among the most likely.

In Nevada, where unemployment is the highest in the nation, Class of 2012 college seniors recently expressed feelings ranging from anxiety and fear to cautious optimism about what lies ahead.

With the state's economy languishing in an extended housing bust, a lot of young graduates have shown up at job placement centers in tears. Many have been squeezed out of jobs by more experienced workers, job counselors said, and are now having to explain to prospective employers the time gaps in their resumes.

"It's kind of scary," said Cameron Bawden, 22, who is graduating from the University of Nevada-Las Vegas in December with a business degree. His family has warned him for years about the job market, so he has been building his resume by working part time on the Las Vegas Strip as a food runner and doing a marketing internship with a local airline.

Bawden said his friends who have graduated are either unemployed or working along the Vegas Strip in service jobs that don't require degrees. "There are so few jobs and it's a small city," he said. "It's all about who you know."

Any job gains are going mostly to workers at the top and bottom of the wage scale, at the expense of middle-income jobs commonly held by bachelor's degree holders. By some studies, up to 95 percent of positions lost during the economic recovery occurred in middle-income occupations such as bank tellers, the type of job not expected to return in a more high-tech age.

David Neumark, an economist at the University of California-Irvine, said a bachelor's degree can have benefits that aren't fully reflected in the government's labor data. He said even for lower-skilled jobs such as waitress or cashier, employers tend to value bachelor's degree-holders more highly than high-school graduates, paying them more for the same work and offering promotions.

In addition, U.S. workers increasingly may need to consider their position in a global economy, where they must compete with educated foreign-born residents for jobs. Longer-term government projections also may fail to consider "degree inflation," a growing ubiquity of bachelor's degrees that could make them more commonplace in lower-wage jobs but inadequate for higher-wage ones.

That future may be now for Kelman Edwards Jr., 24, of Murfreesboro, Tenn., who is waiting to see the returns on his college education.

After earning a biology degree last May, the only job he could find was as a construction worker for five months before he quit to focus on finding a job in his academic field. He applied for positions in laboratories but was told they were looking for people with specialized certifications.

"I thought that me having a biology degree was a gold ticket for me getting into places, but every other job wants you to have previous history in the field," he said. Edwards, who has about $5,500 in student debt, recently met with a career counselor at Middle Tennessee State University. The counselor's main advice: Pursue further education.

"Everyone is always telling you, 'Go to college,'" Edwards said. "But when you graduate, it's kind of an empty cliff."

Read more »

Six Factors That Can Cost You the Interview

Most job seekers know that an unprofessional appearance will count against them at an interview. Here are six MORE factors that can help you remain in the unemployment line:

(1) Being unprepared for the interview. Prepare, plan, and practice! In today's tough job market, you MUST do everything you can to give yourself an edge... preparation is the key.

(2) Not being able to communicate clearly and effectively. This is important during the interview and on the job. Being nervous can really mess up your communication skills, so being well prepared and practicing what you're going to say are always your best bet.

(3) Being aggressive, arrogant, or acting in a superior way. No one wants to hire or work with people who think they're better than everyone else. Be careful with your attitude, even if you think you're surrounded by incompetent fools. Being confident is good. Being an arrogant jerk is bad.

(4) Making excuses for failings. Your teacher never bought "The dog ate my homework!" and your boss isn't going to buy "The finance department gave me the wrong figures!" In the grown-up world, you have to take responsibility for what you are responsible for! You'll never earn respect by blaming others when things go wrong.

(5) Saying unfavorable things about previous employers. Even if you left a job because the boss was an egomaniac who took credit for all of your hard work, verbally abused you in front of others, and poisoned the plant on your desk, don't say anything bad about him/her during an interview. When asked "Why did you leave your last job?" say something like "My manager and I both agreed that my advancement opportunities were limited there and obtaining another position was the best option for me and my career goals."

(6) Having a poor/limp handshake. Why do people think you'll be a lousy employee if you have a lousy handshake? That's not really logical, is it? Doesn't matter. It just turns people off and gives them a bad impression of you. So make your handshake firm and confident but not bone-crushing. (It's not a competition to see who winces first!)

If you DON'T want to be unemployed, don't let any of those traits apply to you!

Read more »

Why Are Our Celebrities Against Turkish Dramas?

When I sat down to write this article, I thought the topic should be why are our people against Turkish dramas? but then I thought that will not make an appropriate title since most of our people, the layman, is not just against Turkish dramas but there are so many people who have been opposing Indian programs too for such a long time but no one listens to them. So I am more interested in finding out why our actors, producers and directors are against Turkish dramas. Lately, I have read so many articles on blogs, newspapers and magazines against Turkish dramas and not to mention the debates that are going on, on the electronic media. It is our favorite topic nowadays and after reading so much against Turkish dramas I found some of the arguments very flawed so I would like to discuss here why I am not getting convinced by these arguments. Let me also add that if watching a Turkish play means you are ‘supporting foreign content’ then I DO NOT support foreign content because I don’t find it interesting and engaging enough full stop. Does that make me a very loyal Pakistani hmmm I am not sure! Okay here are some points that I would really like people to take time out for and read. I consider myself a very impartial observer so this may make sense to some people who are not driven by emotions but listen to reason. In any case don’t forget to share your views.
1. The People Who Support Turkish Dramas Are Not Patriotic OR Show Your Patriotism By Helping us Ban Turkish Content.
Are Turkish Dramas the only foreign element in our country? Look at the things you use around the house start from the computer you have, then the phone, which car do you use? Which drink did you have today? Pepsi? Is your Television set made locally? Is your shampoo local? What about the milk and cheese you eat? When you eat out do you have Chinese or McDonald’s or it has to be a desi restaurant every time? And if that is not the case than does that mean you are not patriotic? Absolutely not. You buy these products because as a consumer you have the right to choose. If our people can be considered unpatriotic because they “support” foreign things than not too many of us are patriotic are we? If it indeed is true than all local restaurants should rage a war against the multinational chains because they are a “threat” to them. All the soft drinks are being made locally, so Pepsi etc should be banned too and the list is never-ending.
I want to buy my fridge and watch my dramas without the fear that what I choose will gauge the level of loyalty I have towards my country. There are many other ways of showing love to your country like by being honest at work, saving electricity so on and so forth.
2. Turkish Dramas Are Against Our Culture OR Turkish Dramas Will Take Over Our Culture.
My first question is what is our culture? Because as far as I know Pakistani culture is very diverse and varies not just from province to province but from city to city.
As a society Pakistanis have always derived cultural values from their religion.
What is the general theme of our dramas?
Saas Bahu troubles
Sisterly Rivalry
Husband and wife having problems
Husbands having extra marital affairs
Girls getting raped and what happens to them ete etc
Where does culture come in? Let’s talk about dressing now. The Turkish actresses are very boldly dressed and our actresses are so graceful and dignified (only in dramas) otherwise if you watch the same actresses in fashion shows and other shows they are equally bold in their dressing. What does that show? Are we hypocrites? We have to be fools to think that actresses who cover their heads and bodies in dramas are like that in reality too and we know it only too well that they are not. We saw it very clearly in Lux Style Awards. So, where are we going as a society? Are these people the true representatives of our culture? Or are we being fooled? Or is it okay for these actresses to dress up boldly for shows (that are also shown on our televisions) but not in dramas?
Why don’t our celebrities protest against the mujra channels that are openly shown by every single cable channel and are easily accessible? Are they in line with our culture? Are they not ruining our culture? If our artists are not just worried about their own self and about the culture than they should oppose all things that are against our culture. To start with the cheap local theatre shows should be banned. And what about the Indian shows, why don’t our artists speak about that?
3. Turkish Dramas Are Not Good For Our Drama Industry.
Turkish dramas or any dramas that are watched by people provide good competition and it is the basic rule of economics that competition is always good because it gives people choices and it improves quality of products. Turkish dramas will give incentive to our producers and writers to come up with original concepts in order to attract the attention of people. No doubt we are making excellent dramas even now but you will all agree with me that most of the stories are taken from digests and people have stopped putting in the effort to get an original script being written for a drama. All dramas revolve around similar themes because too many dramas are being made and no one has time to come up with new ideas. Maybe these Turkish dramas will actually save our drama industry while it is still strong enough before it goes downhill.

Who will be benefiting monetarily from these dramas? We already know that our channels are getting these dramas at a cheaper rate and local artists are dubbing these plays so they benefit from it. Once the drama goes on air, it is our own channels which benefit from it.
4. If Such Serials Start Running Regularly There Will Be No Audience For Pakistani Content.
Hamayun Saeed gave this statement and I was appalled to hear it because it surprises me that these producers who expect the viewers to support them fail to give the viewers any credit and themselves too! All I want to say in response is that please have some faith in your own dramas and the people who watch them. All Pakistanis who have a television set at home also have access to cable and they have the choice to watch anything they want already but they still choose to watch Pakistani dramas because they are good enough. So enough of the exaggeration already! If you continue making good dramas, we will continue watching them.
I said it before and I am going to say again that I do not watch or “support” Turkish dramas but at the same time I feel that the artists who are giving emotional statements are just being unreasonable and insecure. They should continue making good dramas and stop the blame game. We should not feel threatened by competition but take it in our stride.

Read more »