Deficits pose big challenge, warns SBP

The State Bank of Pakistan. — File Photo

KARACHI: The State Bank kept the policy interest rate unchanged at 12 per cent on Saturday, saying the real challenge lay in financing the fiscal and external current account deficits.
The Governor of SBP, Yaseen Anwar, explained the difficulties being faced by economy as well as problems in monetary management during a media briefing where he announced the monetary policy for the February-March period.
The SBP expects the average inflation in 2011-12 (FY12) to range between 11 and 12 per cent, implying an uptick during the second half of the current fiscal.
The central bank chief said inflationary pressures had not eased significantly. There were indications of underlying inflationary pressures. For instance, the number of CPI items showing year-on-year inflation of more than 10 per cent was significant and mostly belonged to the non-food category, he added.
The SBP said it had been providing substantial liquidity on an almost permanent basis, but it carried risks for effectively anchoring inflation expectations in the medium term.
From July 1 to Feb 9, Rs230 billion had been supplied by State Bank.
The government has so far borrowed Rs444 billion from the banking system, including Rs197 billion from State Bank, an amount considerably higher than the yearly financing requirements of Rs293 billion envisaged in the FY12 budget, said Yaseen Anwar.
The provisional estimate of fiscal deficit for the first half of FY12 (July-Dec 2011), from the financing side, shows a deficit of Rs532 billion, or 2.5 per cent of GDP.
Over the past 10 years, the deficit has always been higher in the second half of a fiscal year by at least 0.5 per cent of GDP.
“Containing the FY12 fiscal deficit close to the government’s revised target of 4.7 per cent of GDP would be difficult,” the State Bank governor said.
BIG CHALLENGE: The SBP said the real challenge was to finance the projected external current account deficit.
“Incorporating a steady flow of workers’ remittances, the external current account deficit is expected to remain in the range of $3.5 billion to $5.5 billion, or 1.5 to 2.4 per cent of GDP,” said Yaseen Anwar.
The risks to external payments position have also increased due to worsening terms of trade, fragile global economic conditions, and continued paucity of financial inflows. In addition, $1.1 billion is to be repaid to the IMF during the second half of 2011-12.
The SBP’s foreign exchange reserves have already declined to $12.2 billion from $14.8 billion since July 1. Similarly, the rupee-dollar exchange rate has depreciated by 5.2 per cent in FY12 so far, he added.The possibility of limiting the deficit to the lower side of the range is mainly contingent upon the realisation of Coalition Support Fund, $800 million, and the proceeds from the auction of 3G licences, estimated to be around $850 million, he added.
The actual net capital and financial inflows during the first half of FY12 was only $167 million due to decline in both the direct and portfolio investments and shortfalls in official flows.
“Assuming that all the official flows contemplated by the government are realised – $500 million from the issuance of euro bonds, $800 million from the privatisation proceeds of PTCL, and budgeted loans from international financial institutions – the net capital and financial inflows could increase to $3.8 billion by June 2012,” said Mr. Anwar.
The SBP said the credit growth to private sector would remain weak. “All of the fresh credit disbursement in first half FY12 was utilised to meet the working capital requirements, which implies that a significant part of this credit will be retired in second half of the year,” said the Governor.
The full year expansion in credit to the private sector is expected to remain weak for yet another year in FY12 despite interest rate reductions.
“Though, tax collections in first half of the current fiscal grew by 27.1 per cent the full year target of Rs1952 billion still seems ambitious,” he said.

Read more »

Greek debt talks drag on but banks signal progress on bond-swap deal to forgive some debt

Shoppers are seen on Athens' main commercial Ermou Street, on Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. Parties backing Greece's coalition government will hold a second day of emergency talks Monday on a vital austerity deal with rescue creditors, after a weekend of negotiations failed to produce the breakthrough needed to avert bankruptcy in March. (AP Photo/Dimitri Messinis)

ATHENS, Greece - Greece's private creditors signalled progress late Tuesday on a debt-relief deal but crucial talks between Greek coalition leaders about forcing more austerity upon a hostile public were again postponed.

Anger flared on the streets of Athens as more than 20,000 protesters marched through the Greek capital and unions called a general strike Tuesday against the new cuts in jobs and spending. The strike halted trains and ferries, closed down schools and banks and put state hospitals on short staffing.

Several hundred protesters clashed with riot police outside Parliament and set fire to a German flag — upset over Germany's role in demanding more austerity from Athens.

"They are committing a crime against the country. They are driving wage-earners into poverty and wiping out pensioners and the unemployed," said Vangelis Moutafis, a senior member of Greece's largest union, the GSEE. "They are selling off state assets for nothing. This cannot continue."

Greek Premier Lucas Papademos delayed a meeting with his coalition parties till Wednesday, staying in talks until late in the night with top bank negotiators as well as with debt inspectors from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Greece is under massive time pressure to secure a new €130 billion ($170 billion) bailout from its partners in the euro and the IMF without which it will default in March on its massive debts.

Representatives of the Institute of International Finance, which has been leading the talks for private bondholders on forgiving Greece part of its debts, had a "constructive meeting" with Papademos, IIF spokesman Frank Vogl said.

Papademos and Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos will soon brief the rest of the 17-nation eurozone on the proposed deal, Vogl said — a sign the bond-swap deal could be close.

The meeting of eurozone finance ministers could happen as soon as Thursday in Brussels, according to officials, although that will depend on finding agreement in Athens on the terms of the second bailout.

Greece has been kept solvent since May 2010 by payments from a €110 billion ($145 billion) international rescue loan package. When it became clear the money would not be enough, a second bailout was decided last October.

As well as passing new austerity measures, the second bailout depends on Greece's separate talks with banks and other private bondholders to forgive €100 billion ($132 billion) in Greek debt. The private investors are expected to swap their current bonds for new bonds worth 50 per cent less than the original face value, with longer repayment terms and a lower interest rate.

Without the new debt deals, Greece would face a disastrous default in late March.

The intense talks in Athens were supposed to be finished last weekend, but have dragged on over EU-IMF demands for a new round of austerity measures that include civil service job cuts and slashing Greece's minimum wage.

The Greek government has already accepted that it must cut 15,000 state jobs in 2012 to get the new bailout, as well cut 2012 spending by a further €3.3 billion ($4.3 billion), reduce wage costs in the private sector and recapitalize banks without nationalizing them.

But disagreement remains between Greek lawmakers on the extent of those cuts.

A government official said Papademos' draft agreement on the austerity deal would be sent to Greek party leaders for scrutiny early Wednesday. "It took much longer than expected," the official told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks.

The government's coalition partners — the majority Socialists, main rival conservatives and the small right-wing LAOS party — are also at odds over whether to go ahead with plans for an early election in April.

The Socialists, who handed over power to Papademos in November, want him to stay through parliament's four-year term that ends in late 2013, while conservatives are demanding an April vote.

LAOS leader George Karatazferis also criticized eurozone heavyweights France and Germany on Tuesday, saying they were carrying out an "aggressive humiliation of Greece" with all their demands for new austerity measures.

A disorderly bankruptcy by Greece would likely lead to its exit from the eurozone, a situation that European officials have insisted is impossible because it would hurt other weak countries like Portugal, Ireland and Italy.

But on Tuesday, the Neelie Kroes, one of the EU's 27 commissioners, said Greece's exit wouldn't be a disaster.

"It's always said: if you let one nation go, or ask one to leave, the entire structure will collapse. But that is just not true," Kroes told Dutch newspaper De Volkskrant.

She added that "Greece is not living up to its promises: too few savings, too few reforms ... It's becoming a Greek mantra: 'We cannot. We won't'!"

But EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso quickly stepped in to counter her remarks.

"We are in a very decisive moment regarding the future of Greece and the future of the euro. We want Greece in the euro," he said. "The costs of a default by Greece, the costs of a potential exit of Greece from the euro would be a lot higher than the costs of continuing to support Greece."

While Greece remains cut off from international bond markets — where it would have to pay interest of about 35 per cent to sell 10-year issues — it maintains a market presence through regular short-term debt sales.

On Tuesday, Greek borrowing costs dropped slightly as the country raised €812 million ($1.06 billion) in an auction of 26-week treasury bills. The interest rate was 4.86 per cent, compared to 4.90 per cent in a similar auction last month. The auction was 2.72 times oversubscribed.

Read more »

FOREX-Euro dips as Greece delays debt deal approval

NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - The euro dropped against
the dollar on Monday as Greece's political leaders
delayed a decision on a new bailout package, raising concerns of
a disorderly default that could spread to other debt-ridden
countries in the region. 
    A European Commission spokesman said Greece was already past
the deadline for finalizing talks on a second financing package
and needed to move urgently.  
    German Chancellor Angela Merkel told Greece to make up its
mind quickly on accepting the painful terms for a new EU/IMF
bailout, but the country's political leaders responded by
delaying their decision for yet another day.  
    "Headlines out of Europe are affecting sentiment on the
euro. Earlier, we had hit stop losses in the euro and we saw it
trim some losses. But it's more of the same," said Brian Dolan,
chief currency strategist at Forex.com, as investors waited on
Greece. 
    Greece's coalition members must agree to painful terms of
the bailout before euro zone finance ministers next meet. A
meeting of  political leaders in Athens was postponed to
Tuesday. Greece needs the funds by March to meet big debt
repayments.   
    The euro was last down 0.1 percent at $1.3128
after hitting a low of $1.3026 after stop-loss orders were
tripped below $1.3050.  
    If the impasse in Greece persists, the euro could target
$1.3026, the Feb. 1 trough, and more stop-loss orders were said
to be below $1.3020. 
    Nomura Securities analysts said they believe a Greece deal
is close, both in terms of the private sector involvement
process and in relation to negotiations with its lenders around
key program parameters.  
    "Since the implications of bad versus good news is clearly
asymmetric (a bad outcome could have severe implications), it is
a tough set-up to trade with confidence," Nomura said.
"Nevertheless, we believe a 'good' outcome is likely in the very
short term. We are therefore inclined to keep a risk
constructive bias within our portfolio at this time."  
    Nomura said EUR/USD at $1.25 is a reasonable target for the
first quarter, adding it would not be surprised to see a squeeze
higher in the very short term given the still very elevated
speculative shorts. 
    
  
    The IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, said on
 Monday it looks like the "haircut" on Greek private debt
will be "very large" as negotiations between bondholders and the
government drag on.   
    CitiFX, a division of Citigroup, said even with all the
uncertainty about Greece, the euro has still managed to hold its
ground pretty well.  
    CitiFX saw two potential explanations. First, investors may
still expect an agreement will ultimately be reached. Second,
they may think Greece is too small to matter.  
    "We have long argued that investors are ignoring Greece at
their own risk," the bank said. "We think that the risks of a
credit event in Greece are non-negligible and that the
uncertainty about both the second Greek bailout package and
(private sector involvement) is here to stay. 
    "We also suspect that a potential Greek default could
unleash contagion to other fiscally weak countries in the euro
zone periphery and lead to extensive FX volatility for a period
of time." 
    Against the yen, the euro fell 0.1 percent to 100.54 yen
 while against the safe-haven Swiss franc, it was 0.1
percent lower at 1.2062 francs, not far from the Swiss
central bank's cap at 1.20 francs per euro. 
    The dollar was little changed against the yen at 76.58 yen
, having earlier risen to 76.79 yen, its highest in
over a week.

Read more »

Europe crisis could halve China's growth: IMF

A Chinese paramilitary policeman standing guard outside the European Union Delegation in Beijing in 2011 (AFP/File, Peter Parks)

WASHINGTON — An escalation of Europe's debt crisis could slash China's economic growth in half this year, the International Monetary Fund said Monday, urging Beijing to prepare stimulus measures in response.
The IMF, in an economic outlook report on the world's second-largest economy, highlighted China's vulnerability to global demand.
"The global economy is at a precarious stage and downside risks have risen sharply," the IMF said, citing the possible deep crunch in the financial sector in Europe that would be felt around the globe.
"Should such a tail risk of financial volatility emanating from Europe be realized, it would drag China's growth lower."
The IMF outlined the negative impact if the eurozone crisis tipped Europe into a deep recession, dragging China's growth lower mainly due to shocks through trade.
In that "downside scenario" China's growth would fall by around 4.0 percentage points this year from the 8.2 percent rate the IMF projected in January.
"The risks to China from Europe are, therefore, both large and tangible."
In that case, "China should respond with a significant fiscal package."
China's exposure to financial spillovers is limited, it said, noting foreign assets, including sovereign debt, represent only 2.0 percent of Chinese bank assets.
However, the export-dependent economy is highly exposed through trade linkages. Nearly half of China's exports go to Europe and the United States.
Lower global demand would further reduce investment and employment and may trigger a decline in China's property market.
The IMF recalled that China's vulnerability was revealed in the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, when global growth plunged.
China launched a huge credit and fiscal stimulus in response, limiting the sharp impact on the domestic economy -- and yet growth still sank by five percentage points.
"However, a track record of fiscal discipline has given China ample room to respond to such an external shock," the IMF said.
If the euro area falters, the IMF recommended Beijing launch a substantial stimulus program, equivalent to roughly 3.0 percent of gross domestic product spread out over 2012-2013.
That would limit the decline in growth to around 1.0 percent, cushioning the negative fallout on employment and people's livelihoods, the IMF said.
The stimulus measures could include reductions in consumption taxes, advancing plans for social housing and scaling up investments in the social safety net, among others.
"Unlike in 2008, the stimulus package... should pass through the budget and not be reliant upon a public infrastructure," the IMF said, referring to the way the spending boost was previously dealt through the banking system, state enterprises and local government financing vehicles.
"The weak external outlook underscores the importance of accelerating the transformation of China's economy to reduce its vulnerability to the vagaries of global demand," it added.

Read more »

Brent jumps to 6-month high on Europe cold snap

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Brent oil rose for a fifth straight session on Monday to settle at a six-month high as cold weather in Europe boosted heating fuel demand and pushed the crude's premium to U.S. oil to the highest since November.
European gasoil led gains across the oil complex, rising more than 3.5 percent as bitter weather killed another 33 people in Europe.
Italy announced it would allow electricity providers to fire up oil-fueled generators to limit natural gas after six-straight days of reduced supplies from Russia.
Additional support for Brent came amid supply concerns from OPEC members Iran and Nigeria.
"The cold weather is giving us a lift in the products and that is feeding through to Brent," said Rob Montefusco, a trader at Sucden Financial in London. "Also, any sort of trouble in the Middle East is likely to keep Brent well bid."
U.S crude fell, however, dragged down by concerns about weak consumption and rising inventories that increased the contract's discount to Brent to more than $19 a barrel from more than $2, the largest discount since November.
Traders said the premium could blow out levels eclipsing those seen last year over $28 a barrel as Midwest refinery turnarounds and rising pipeline flows boost inventories in the region, home to the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point to the New York Mercantile Exchange's oil futures contract.
Brent March crude rose $1.35 to settle at $115.93 a barrel, highest close since August 2. Monday's trade ranged from $113.65 to $116.22. The $116.22 was the highest since $116.48 intraday on November 8.
U.S. March crude fell 93 cents to settle at $96.91 a barrel, having slumped as low as $96.38.
Heating oil prices traded up nearly 2.3 percent in late activity, despite forecasts that U.S. total heating demand would run about 14.5 percent below normal and heating oil demand would be 20.5 percent below normal.
Trading volumes were heavy, with Brent volume about 22 percent above the 30-day moving average and U.S. crude about 18 percent over that average.
The euro weakened against the dollar after the failure of Greek coalition parties to approve the terms of a new bailout package rekindled worries about a chaotic default.
The dollar index edged up and a stronger U.S. currency can pressure dollar-denominated oil by making the commodity more expensive for consumers using other currencies.
THREATS TO SUPPLY
Traders also eyed developments in the Middle East and Nigeria, where a police station was the site of the latest attack by suspected Islamist militants.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards deputy commander said on Sunday that Tehran would target any country used as a launching pad for attacks against its soil. Iran's supreme leader last week threatened reprisals for the West's ban on Iranian oil exports in the standoff over Tehran's nuclear program.
China, the largest consumer of Iranian crude, will halve its crude oil imports from Iran in March versus year-ago levels as a dispute over payments and prices stretches into a third month, oil industry sources involved in the deals said.
Asia's imports of West African crude are at record highs as sanctions on Iran reduce supplies, a Reuters survey of West African flows suggest.
In Syria an explosion ripped through an oil pipeline feeding a main refinery in the city of Homs, the second in a week to hit the pipeline.
(Additional reporting by Gene Ramos in New York, Claire Milhench in London and Francis Kan in Singapore. Editing by Bob Burgdorfer.)

Read more »

Market Watch: Bourse surges to six-month high

 

KSE’s benchmark 100-share index jumps 154 points.

 

KARACHI: The stock market closed at a six-month high on Monday as investors took activity up a notch on rumours of foreign buying and ease in the circular debt in the next few days.

The Karachi Stock Exchange’s (KSE) benchmark 100-share index jumped 1.29 per cent or 154.3 points to end at the 12,136.92 point level.
“Term Finance Certificates are expected to be issued in the next few days to resolve the circular debt issue,” said JS Global Capital analyst Shakir Padela.
A healthy intra-day upward correction was also witnessed after reports surfaced that Supreme Court suspended membership of a few senators and parliamentarians including Finance Minster Abdul Hafiz Shaikh.
Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Rs313 million worth of shares, according to data maintained by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited.
Trade volumes surged to 196 million shares compared with Friday’s tally of 130 million shares.
National Bank of Pakistan closed the day on its upper circuit on expectations of high cash and bonus payout with the full year result, added Padela. The country’s largest bank by asset was up 5% to Rs45.29.
Second tier banks were also in limelight as result driven rally finally gathered momentum. Bank Alfalah rose 2.1%, Askari Bank gained 7%, Standard Chartered Bank 7%, Bank of Punjab 12% and NIB Bank gained 3%.
Shares of 353 companies were traded on Monday. At the end of the day 195 stocks closed higher, 79 declined while 79 remained unchanged. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs5.57 billion.
Jahangir Siddiqui and Company was the volume leader with 32.14 million shares gaining Re0.1 to finish at Rs7.56. It was followed by DG Khan Cement with 12.63 million shares gaining Rs0.61 to close at Rs24.83 and Lafarge Pakistan with 9.83 million shares firming Rs0.06 to close at Rs2.29.

Read more »

How the major stock indexes fared on Monday

Stock indexes closed slightly lower Monday as talks dragged on between Greek political leaders over a package of spending cuts and other measures required for the country to get more bailout loans.
President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Greek leaders that they need to push through another package of cost-cutting measures or risk letting the country go bankrupt.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 17.10 points, or 0.1 percent, to close at 12,845.13.
The Standard & Poor's 500 index slipped 0.57 of a point to 1,344.33.
The Nasdaq composite fell 3.67, or 0.1 percent, to 2,901.99.
For the year so far:
The Dow is up 627.57 points, or 5.1 percent.
The S&P 500 is up 86.73 points, or 6.9 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 296.84 points, or 11.4 percent.

Read more »